FORECASTING SALES VOLUMES AND CASH FLOWS OF THE COMPANY: APPLIED ASPECT

Series "Economy": Problems of enterprise management

Abstract

Making decision concerning the usage of autoregressive models during the forecast is grounded and its advantages are considered, other methods and forecasting models are compared. Assessment of the companies sales dynamics for all ten years (2005—2014) is made. The estimation of sales and cash flows of the company with a lag is given. The values of the regression coefficients between the rows and rows of a lag of one year is calculated. The estimation of sales and cash flows of the AR enterprise model is done. Indicators accuracy assess and adequacy of the forecast is obtained which became the basis for building sales forecast cash flow of the enterprise in the 2015—2016 year. It was found that the forecast of economic indicators is influencing on reaction accelerate as to the changes in the external environment and as consequence timely containment of economic falling levels effect, definition of financial resources real possibility, the sources of their formation and the ways of their use.

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